Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Near-Term Outlook for Decline of U.S. Dollar
The dollar had risen as the crisis in Europe increased the demand for the safe currency, but recently began to decline as the focus of the concern turned to the U.S. itself. While at the end of this week the dollar rebounded against other major currencies, the future of the U.S. currency seems uncertain.
The dollar will likely weaken in the near future unless some good news from the U.S. show the strength of the currency. The lower number of jobless claims may spark some optimism, but other than that there is nothing to be hopeful about. In case the speculation that the European economy is stronger than it looks would prove true, the dollar will certainly decrease.
The movements of the EUR / USD currency pair is expected to be volatile as sentiment shifts as the news from Europe and the U.S. now the single European currency shows tendency to rebound if there is more bad news from the U.S. than in Europe. On the other hand, the profits of the euro will be limited by the uncertainty brought on the global markets by the weak U.S. economy. GBP / USD could experience some volatility as traders are still uncertain what impact the cuts will have on the economy of Great Britain, so we must wait until image is clearly to predict where the currency pair will go. The Japanese yen is likely to benefit from concerns about the U.S. and global economy and continue to rally against the dollar.
The dollar is nowhere near parity with the euro. It is unlikely that the dollar will go to 1.20 per euro in the near future. For now not much further down 1.30 per euro level, but we must wait to determine whether this level of aid. Against the pound the dollar would probably not weaken than 1.5475 per pound level and was trading near 1.5150 per pound. The dollar will probably be traded near its current level against the Aussie, while he may against the loonie up to 1.0675 before dropping back.
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